The Odds Have Improved

On Wednesday (09/21), CNN online reported that prospects for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections seemed to be improving. To paraphrase, the Good Guys poll two to three points better now than earlier this year, at least in most districts. Continuing this logic, incumbents in districts that are at least marginally blue have some breathing room. For the same reason, a handful more GOP seats have come into play.

Join GOTV in a wahoo over this. And, consider that, simultaneous with the CNN forecast, fivethirtyeight.com has also arrived at a picture of a Federal legislature that may turn completely blue.

A few days ago, 538 rated Democrats' chances of holding onto a majority in the House of Representatives at 27 out of 100. Today, those probabilities are closer to 31 out of 100.

Should this trend continue for the 45 days between today and November 8, Dems' chances of keeping the House would improve significantly, Today, 538 gives us about an 80% chance of holding the barest of majorities in the House: 220 seats.