Keepin' the Faith

Reports on early voting in the runoff election in Georgia are encouraging. Over 300,000 Georgians have cast a ballot for the state's open Senate seat.

Many of that 300K+ were in what are usually Democratic / "blue" counties. Bodes well for Senator Warnock ...

Fanatic About Felines

 As GOTV goes, so goes southeast PA - sort of.

GOTV is currently devoid of cats, despite viewing them as an absolutely necessary component of pragmatic thought.  We hope to remedy the situation shortly.  But in the meantime, this piece from Axios caught our eye.

The Philadelphia Metro area leads the United States in the percentage of households which have cats.

518,000

According to TrainDemocrats.org, there are 518,000 elected positions in the United States. As the web site puts it, imagine if Democrats fought for every one of these, no matter how small.  Imagine a world where our values are upheld on every school board, and in every city council and state legislature.

Well worth imagining, and taking steps to bring about ,,,😇

It Ain't Over Till It's Over

To quote today's Inquirer, Doug Mastriano lost by a lot.  But some of his supporters believe the results are inaccurate, and they think they’ve found a way to do something about it.  Election denial groups are flooding Pennsylvania courts with petitions to force hand recounts.  

It’s not clear counties will be required to retally their votes; some courts have already thrown out the requests.  And even if they were carried out, Mastriano could not recoup the 781,000 votes by which he lost to Josh Shapiro. Recounts seldom change election results.

But such efforts threaten to:

• engender confusion about the validity of this month’s election
• tie up state courts
• disrupt officials’ ongoing work to audit and certify results by Monday’s deadline

Like most of Mastriano's campaign and positions, such moves seek to:

• keep Mastriano in the public eye
• try to find and exploit vulnerabilities in the state’s election system

That last is the scary part ...😦

Never Say Never

Spotlight PA reports today that Governor-elect Josh Shapiro did what some thought impossible for a Democrat in "purple" PA.

Shapiro received a record number of votes - more than three million - on his way to winning the 2022  race.  And it gets better.   Mr. Shapiro won by a margin not often seen, burying GOP candidate Doug Mastriano  (couldn't happen to a more deserving boor) by nearly 15 points, while at the same time driving down margins in counties some Democrats had written off years ago.

A Sort-of Majority

Even after taking control of the PA House, Democrats will need GOP support to get a speaker elected.  That's because a majority is needed to confirm a Speaker, and at least one Democratic vote won't be available to support (state) Rep. Joanna McClinton (D., Philadelphia), the party's nominee.

Democrats won a 102-101 state House majority in this month's midterms, but the posthumous reelection of longtime state Rep. Tony DeLuca (D., Allegheny) means his seat will be open, effectively creating a 101-101 split.   As a result, Democrats will, at a minimum, need one Republican to secure a majority. It might even require more, if U.S. Rep.-elect Summer Lee, currently a state House representative, is unable to cast her vote before taking office in D.C.

Oh Please Oh Please Oh Please

Chris Cilliza of CNN Online reported today that there appears to be an attempt by Donald Trump to sink Herschel Walker's candidacy.  If only that were true ...

The attempt is actually that of Raphael Warnock's campaign.  In an effort to mobilize Georgia voters against Walker (shouldn't be too hard), Rev. Warnock’s strategy has been to make the race a referendum on Trump.  Warnock directs that strategy at two entities:

1. The Democratic base in the state: Much of the work of a runoff election wedged in between Thanksgiving and Christmas is to get the people who are already for you out to the polls. As was demonstrated in the past several election cycles, Trump is the mother of all motivators for Democratic voters.
2. The Atlanta suburbs: According  to exit polls taken after the midterm election, Walker took 49% of the suburban vote compared to 48% for Warnock, who appears to be betting that linking Walker so directly to Trump will be a turnoff for swing suburban voters.

What can we conclude from Warnock’s decision to nationalize this race around Trump?  It suggests that Senator Warnock believes the former president is a net negative in Georgia.  That in turn will help deep-six Walker in the upcoming run-off vote.

After the Fact, But Still Interesting

Nate Silver and 538 introduce another way of evaluating candidates ... their experience or lack thereof at some level of elective office.

It Ain't Over Till It's Over

Spotlight  PA reports today that while Democrats have won control of the Pennsylvania House, they're still not in the driver's seat.

Because of upcoming seat vacancies, us good guys will need to rely on Republican support in the early months of 2023.  The vacancies in question will be filled in special elections that may be held between February and May.

Taking Control

GOTV, for more than three decades, has viewed Delaware County as the easternmost suburb of Braddock.  Given that point of view, we find it interesting that Allegheny County, in the midterms just completed, foreshadowed a trend that may come to dominate U. S. politics.

As reported by WESA in Pittsburgh, the midterms last week may have already changed the balance of power in both Harrisburg and Washington, D.C. But perhaps the most impactful expression of 2022 was that of an ongoing generational change.

On the way out: In PA, U.S. Reps. Mike Doyle and Conor Lamb, U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey

Introducing:

• Reps.-elect Summer Lee (the first female black member of the House of Representatives from PA) and Chris Deluzio 
• Sen.-elect John Fetterman
• Lt. Gov.-elect Austin Davis
• seven new state House reps. for Allegheny County

Such Gen-Z-isation of our legislatures is on the horizon, at every level.

Flipping the (PA) House

SpotlightPA reports today that Democrats' pickup of a dozen seats, giving them control of the PA (State) House, was largely due to a decade of population shifts.  Those shifts in turn are reflected in this year's redrawing of political lines.

The practical effects for us lefties are significant.  With Gov.-elect Josh Shapiro controlling the executive branch, Democrats will have a much larger say in Harrisburg’s day-to-day agenda.  It's been reported that Democrats in the House will put forward policy priorities like:

• raising the minimum wage
• instituting LGBTQ nondiscrimination protections
• blocking controversial constitutional amendments such as those advocated, during the campaign, by Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano
  

In Case You're Wondering

... what life will be like under the 118th Congress, here are some likely outcomes.

• Nancy Pelosi announced that, while she will remain a member of Congress, she will not seek any further leadership role within then Democratic caucus.
• Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, (D - New York) has always been seen as the favorite to serve as Democratic leader after Pelosi.  Though Democrats in the House won't vote until November 30, it's nearly certain that Jeffries will lead the caucus, since at least at this writing he runs unopposed.
• Top Republicans on Thursday outlined a broad range of investigative targets focused on President Joe Biden and his family’s business dealings.  In the 118th Congress, this committee will evaluate the status of Joe Biden’s relationship with his family’s foreign partners and whether he is a President who is compromised or swayed by foreign dollars and influence, said Rep. James Comer of Kentucky, the top Republican on the House Oversight Committee.  I want to be clear: This is an investigation of Joe Biden, and that’s where the committee will focus in this next Congress.
• In a news conference flanked by (another paragon of impartiality) Rep. Jim Jordan (R - OH), who is expected (shudder!) to become chair of the House Judiciary Committee, Comer said Republicans have made connections between the president’s son, Hunter Biden, and the president that they believe requires further investigation.

Perhaps, once they're done with what promises to be another Benghazi fiasco, Messrs Comer and Jordan can look into charges made some time ago against Jordan and Comer themselves ...

Fact-Checking 45

Former President Donald Trump began his 2024 campaign in the same way he ended his presidency - with a cornucopia of inaccuracy.

Daniel Dale, formerly of the Toronto Star but now affiliated with CNN, ticked off 20 such bonehead statements last night.  If any of you are surprised, you shouldn't be ...

Flipping the House

As we write this, 19 seats in the U. S. House of Representatives are up for grabs.  Those seats will determine which party, and even which flank of which party, controls the House and therefore the management of it.

Here's hoping (praying?) that Democrats in Alaska, Arizona, and California can deliver the 14 seats needed to keep the Speaker's gavel in Rep. Pelosi's hands ...

Why Doesn't This Surprise GOTV?

 Or 'why don't these' ...

Our attempt a few minutes ago to create a user account on 45's Truth Social 'platform' failed execrably.  We were trying to enter this inner sanctum because of a paradigm learned while working for former U S Congressman Joe Sestak: know your adversary.

GOTV can't imagine a political figure more at odds than 45 with progressive politics like those of Rep. Sestak.  Nor can we envision a less professional web design and implementation than Truth Social.  For instance, in its zeal to validate our email address, it insisted on sending us an SMS message, without inquiring if that was our preferred means of communicating.  Had we made an error of that nature in any of our projects in grad school, we'd have been roasted, and rightfully so.  Design Principle #1: design for your user, not for your convenience.

But ironically, Truth Social isn't without technical competence.  Not because of any decision on 45's part, but rather because of one of the tools his techies used in putting the site together.  That tool is of a category of software called open source.

GOTV has always been a devotee of open source, and has installed and configured some of the best, including Linux, MySQL, and Apache.  Maybe we should volunteer to maintain and upgrade TS's underlying operating system, Nginx.  It would be shame if it were to become subject to hackers, despite its having been developed by and until very recently used almost exclusively in Russia ...

Authentic and Unaffected

GOTV has always been fond of John Fetterman, even when bemoaning his hoodies and tattoos.  Far more weighty than those, for us at least, was the fact that Mr Fetterman embodies every praiseworthy quality GOTV grew up with in (North) Braddock.

Multi-culturalism became something of a cliche for us while we were still active in the classroom.  We'd tell  students repeatedly about:

• the number of languages other than English (five: German, Hungarian, Italian, Polish, and Ruthenian) we heard daily on the 1300 block of Bell Avenue (where we spent our first 13 years)
• politically active, and in many cases highly educated (one MSW in social work, another an ABD in physics), family members who were also, demographically, working class
  
• growing up in an environment largely free of racial prejudice (viz  Porky Chedwick and his playlist)

These and more were the foundation for what we most enjoyed about our efforts in higher education:

• working with students from all over the world
• helping people gain confidence in their ability to engender positive social change
  

Taken together, these points embody what we find most admirable about John Fetterman.  He's authentic, straightforward, unaffected, and unpretentious.  That will serve Pennsylvania, and the country as a whole, well.

Fine Print

GOTV continues to be dismayed by the recent practice of otherwise respectable media (talkin' bout you, CNN) of drawing misleading conclusions.

Today's online coverage of the midterms has four races listed as toss-ups:

Fetterman - Oz                      (Senate)

Wild - Scheller                       (PA 07 House of Rep.)

Cartwright - Bognet             (PA 08 House of Rep.)

Deluzio - Shaffer                   (PA 17   House of Rep.)

Here's GOTV's take on these predictions, based upon averaging the results of several reputable polls.

In the Senate race, Lt. Gov. Fetterman accrues an average chance of victory of 46.5%, while Mr. Oz garners 45.8.

PA 07 is the only one of the House races in which the Republican is favored, by a margin of 54 to 46%.

In both PA 08 and PA 17, the Democratic candidates are favored, by as much as 12%.

The reputable polls just referred to are among the raw materials for Nate Silver's working  his magic.

However late in the day it may seem, the numbers above are still more reason to follow former President Obama's advice, and get off the couch, put down the phone, get out of the house, and vote.

BTW, there have been reports of individuals watching and even recording activity at ballot drop-off boxes in Philly.

Cliches

It's become something of a cliche. That's because it's true - the only poll that counts is the one that takes place on Election Day.

In Pennsylvania, voting opens at 7 AM and closes at 8 PM.  If you're not sure where to go to cast your vote, use this link (from the Department of State in the Commonwealth) to find your polling place.

A Favorite Fantasy

Here at GOTV, we've had a bravura  ignis fatuus for some time.  In it, John Fetterman  walks to the floor of the U. S. Senate, fixes Lindsay Graham, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, and Rand Paul with a withering gaze that speaks volumes about their respective positions, and describes to them in some detail (albeit not in the native language) how loaded with hagu some of their proposals are.

Help make our dream a reality.  Do as we did yesterday - vote by drop-off ballot.

If Wishes Were Horses

In the past week or so, Rep. Liz Cheney (R - WY) has given a boost to bipartisanship, and to Democratic hopes of holding the majority in the House of Representatives.

Rep. Cheney today endorsed Abigail Spanberger (D - VA) as someone who is dedicated to our country.  About a week ago, Rep. Cheney did the same for Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan.

It's too bad that some of Rep. Cheney's (soon-to-be-former) Republican colleagues in the House (are you listening, Kevin?)  don't take a similar, country-before-party, approach ...

Come One Come All

PA Democrats are hosting a grassroots event this Saturday at the  Licouras Center of Temple University.

Doors open at 1:30 PM; discussions by former President Barack Obama and current President Joe Biden, in support of John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro, will run till 6.

Don't pass up this opportunity to help preserve our democracy.

Latrobe

On Saturday, Nov. 5, stay away from this lovely Westmoreland County borough (home of Saint Vincent College).  45 will be in Latrobe , at the Arnold Palmer Regional Airport, campaigning for Doug Mastriano and Mehmet Oz.  Trump's Save America PAC provided venue and timeline information as follows:

2 p.m. – Doors Open
4 p.m. – Special Guest Speakers Deliver Remarks
7 p.m. – 45th President of the United States Donald J. Trump Delivers Remarks

We don't know who the guest speakers are,  let alone what 45 will offer.  But it's a fair bet that he will invoke some semblance of the Big Lie.

Read the Numbers

In early voting this year, almost 28 million votes have been cast, across 46 states. This early voting has surpassed 2018 levels in 36 of those 46.  Keep in mind, 2018 was the year in which Democrats took control of both House and Senate.

Remember that the next time you read or hear of an incipient red wave.  Then vote on November 8.

Down to the Wire

Next week, the tone and  nature of our society will be defined, at least for the near future.  In recognition of that watershed moment, both President Biden and former President Obama will visit Philadelphia this weekend, speaking on behalf of Senate candidate John Fetterman and gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro.

To paraphrase Mr. Obama, don't grouse - vote.