Processing Absentee Ballots

Ballotpedia has an invaluable guide to just that.

Bad News Is Good News

State Sen. Doug Mastriano told a crowd in North Philadelphia that Latinos were the future of the Republican Party.  He encouraged them to support his campaign, before descending into what GOTV considers condescension and pandering.  Speaking in Spanish, Mastriano said his effort was all about Dios, patria, familia (God, country, and family).  Waxing even more radical, he continued We are at a crossroads between tyranny and freedom.

The event in question, called by organizers Philadelphia’s 1st Hispanic Town Hall, was sponsored by the Small Business Union.  About 75 people attended, with seats for nearly double that available. Almost as numerous as the attendees were the 30 people, including surrogates for Attorney General Josh Shapiro’s gubernatorial campaign, who protested Mastriano’s visit.

But wait - there's more.   GOTV hopes Latinos, and all of us, realize that Mastriano:

• cosponsored legislation in Harrisburg that would put a fee on undocumented immigrants’ money transfers to their homelands
• would ban the use of public benefits for illegal immigrants
• would strengthen and expand the E-Verify law, to ensure employers cannot hire illegal immigrants
• called Pennsylvania a border state and pledged to make it the Florida of the North

Finally, with apologies but it seems worth mentioning, the website of the Small Business Union appears not to have been updated for at least three years ...

Diagnosing Dr. Oz

GOTV wonders if Henry David Thoreau was prescient. Certainly, he was perceptive, and foresaw political trends.  In his essay Civil Disobedience, Thoreau stated:

The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation. What is called resignation is confirmed desperation. From the desperate city you go into the desperate country … A stereotyped but unconscious despair is concealed even under what are called ... games and amusements ... There is no play in them … it is a characteristic of wisdom not to do desperate things …

The vituperative nature of Mehmet Oz's recent anti-Fetterman ads certainly suggests a diagnosis of desperation which is neither unconscious nor quiet.

Face it, Dr. Oz – John leads you by about eight points in most polls.

Right to Life, Mortality, and Poverty Rates

GOTV believes firmly in forgiveness, and in respect for opinions with which we disagree.  But we also recognize the need to differentiate those from simply excusing for expediency's sake.  That's what caught our eye about the info below.

Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney, Chairwoman of the House Committee on Oversight and Reform, today released a staff analysis detailing efforts by Republicans to ban abortion or to impose restrictions that would erect barriers to care. Those restrictions include congressional Republicans’ push to enact a national abortion ban.

Let's quote from and expand on the analysis.

Republicans have no intention of stopping until abortion is banned in every state. In this Congress alone, Republicans have introduced more than 50 bills that would ban abortion or impose barriers to care nationwide, and even prosecute doctors for providing care to their patients. A nationwide abortion ban directly threatens the health and economic security of nearly 64 million women of reproductive age across the country.

Between 2017 and 2021, Republican governors signed into law approximately 127 laws banning abortion or erecting barriers to care. Approximately 31 million women of reproductive age live in the states that have enacted these bans and restrictions.

Here are more of the key findings from the Committee’s analysis.

• Since 2021, Republicans in Congress have introduced 52 bills to ban or restrict abortion nationwide, including 16 bills that call for criminal prosecution of doctors and nurses and four that target the ability to travel to obtain an abortion. 179 House Republicans support banning abortion at only six weeks—before most women even know they’re pregnant. 167 House Republicans support legislation that would define personhood as beginning at conception, in effect banning all abortions.

• A national abortion ban would take away reproductive freedom from roughly twice the number of individuals impacted by current state restrictions.

• A 2021 study estimated that a national ban on abortion could increase overall maternal mortality by 24% and increase maternal mortality for Black women by 39%.

• States with the most severe abortion restrictions have the worst maternal and infant outcomes, larger gender wage gaps, and higher poverty rates for women and children.

Across the Pond

Britain seems as mired in policies favoring the well-off as are our Republicans ...

Role Models

Mehmet Oz could not be in greater contrast with John Fetterman; see more detail here.

In a recent campaign ad, Oz compared himself to former Presidents Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump, by saying You know who else learned in Hollywood? The two greatest presidents in modern history. Like me, they were conservative outsiders who fought the establishment.

Role models or heroes suggest a lot.  Responding to a question, the Dalai Lama once said What you see in me is a reflection of who you are. GOTV concludes, based on that paradigm, that Mehmet Oz is as little inclined to champion working folks as were Reagan and Trump.

He's Toast

In a previously unreported interview in 2019 with Pennsylvania radio station WITF, Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano was pressed about a bill he sponsored that sought to ban abortions when a fetal heartbeat could be detected – at about six weeks. Mastriano was asked whether a woman who decided to get an abortion at 10 weeks would be charged with murder.

Here's his response.

OK, let’s go back to the basic question there. Is that a human being? Is that a little boy or girl? If it is, it deserves equal protection under the law.

Then, when asked if he was saying that anyone seeking an abortion should be charged with murder, Mastriano responded Yes, I am.

Understandably, his campaign did not immediately respond to NBC News' request for comment.  Here at GOTV, we considered The Man Is Pond Scum as the title for this post.

Run the Numbers

Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s Democratic gubernatorial nominee, announced today that his campaign raised over $25 million from June to September, according to a report provided to CNN . That amount dwarfs what Republican candidate Doug Mastriano had raised since the beginning of 2021.

The race between Shapiro and Mastriano is closely watched, given the impact that the governor of the Commonwealth could have on issues such as:

• election administration

• access to abortion

Shapiro’s fund-raising success far outstrips any amounts Tom Wolf raised for his reelection bids. According to the ad-tracking company AdImpact, Shapiro’s campaign has spent $18 million in television and digital advertising. His advertising emphasizes the contrast with Mastriano's stance on abortion rights – a distinction that has generated donation enthusiasm all over the country.

A CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker poll released earlier this month found Shapiro holding a double digit lead, with 55% of likely voters backing him, and only 44% favoring Mastriano. In part, that divide is due to Mastriano's inability to raise sufficient campaign funds. According to the Pennsylvania Department of State, he put together only about $1.8 million from January 2021 to June of 2022. He entered June 2022 with just under $400,000 in the bank.

To make matters worse, there's little hope of help from Republican leadership.  Donald Trump will hold a tele-rally with Mastriano later today, but has declined to tap into his tens of millions of PAC funds to aid his candidate.

Especially when dealing with 45 and his ilk, be careful what you wish for, Doug …

A Precis for November 8

GOTV applauds City and State PA for the precis on the upcoming election the publication put together.

Democrats held a slim majority in the House from 2007 through 2010. But today, Republicans hold 113 of 203 seats. Dems need to gain 12 in order to have a majority in that chamber. Unfortunately, even after redistricting, some maps show Republicans with a (small) majority of 104 seats. That number represents a thin plurality  - only 51.2%. Therefore, for Democrats to score a similar but even more slim primacy , they need to hold only 102 seats – almost a pittance, in light of the predictions from City and State we note below.

One more thing – the decidedly fuzzy math at the end of this paragraph is GOTV's alone. It represents what we feel is needed for Dems to gain the 102 seats just cited.   We arrived at our prediction simply by averaging the odds assigned by City and State to the 15 individual races they're following. Doing so said that an average Voter Spread of 3.13 would give Dems the chamber.  When one considers that, of the 15 races in question, nine are currently held by Republicans, flipping only one of them might be enough to change the overall makeup of the House.  And one final note: the Voter Spreads cited for each of the 15 districts in question were arrived at by Dave's Redistricting.

House Races

3rd Legislative District: Ryan Bizzarro (Democrat) vs. Joe Kujawa (Republican)

Voter Spread: Dem +4.2

Redistricting shifted the Erie region districts around, but the 3rd district still looks to be the incumbent state Rep. Ryan Bizzarro’s to lose.

7th Legislative District: Tim McGonigle (Democrat) vs. Parke Wentling (Republican)

Voter Spread: GOP +5.2

What was once thought to be a matchup between sitting lawmakers has now turned into a toss-up election. Mercer County

13th Legislative District: David Cunningham (Democrat) vs. John Lawrence (Republican)

Voter Spread: GOP +3.6

State Rep. John Lawrence held off a challenger during the primary election, but with the new district lines, the general election could still be up in the air. Highland Township

30th Legislative District: Cindy Kirk (Republican) vs. Arvind Venkat (Democrat)

Voter Spread: Dem +3.7

Dr. Arvind Venkat, an emergency room physician with Allegheny Health Network, has quickly become a popular candidate and gained a significant fundraising advantage. The suburban Allegheny district runs along the Ohio River and Pittsburgh’s North Hills.

39th Legislative District: Andrew Kuzma (Republican) vs. Richard Self (Democrat)

Voter Spread: GOP +8.9

Two newcomers; includes Elizabeth and Somerset Townships, as well as Jefferson Hills, Finleyville and portions of South Park.

44th Legislative District: Valerie Gaydos (Republican) vs. Debra Turici (Democrat)

Voter Spread: GOP +1.1

Incumbent will run against Democrat Debra Turici.

Includes communities around Moon Township, Ross Township, and Leetsdale.

88th Legislative District: Sara Agerton (Democrat) vs. Sheryl Delozier (Republican)

Voter Spread: GOP +4.0

Under the new maps, the 88th district includes Hampden Township, most of Lower Allen and the boroughs of Mechanicsburg, New Cumberland and Shiremanstown

118th Legislative District: James Haddock (Democrat) vs. James May (Republican)

Voter Spread: Dem +5.6

The district has a Democratic lean, and encompasses communities in Lackawanna and Luzerne counties

119th Legislative District: Vito Malacari (Democrat) vs. Alec Ryncavage (Republican) 

Voter Spread: GOP +5.1

The district includes areas of Luzerne County southwest of Wilkes-Barre.

120th Legislative District: Aaron Kaufer (Republican) vs. Fern Leard (Democrat)

Voter Spread: GOP +3.7

The slightly conservative district includes parts of Luzerne County including the townships of Dallas, Exeter, and Kingston and the boroughs of Forty Fort, Luzerne and Wyoming.

137th Legislative District: Joe Emrick (Republican) vs. Anna Thomas (Democrat)

Voter Spread: Dem +0.9

The most tightly contested district in terms of voter spread. Slightly Democratic-leaning area; includes Nazareth, Bethlehem Township, Palmer and Hanover

142nd Legislative District: Joe Hogan (Republican) vs. Mark Moffa (Democrat)

Voter Spread: Dem +5.4

New 142nd legislative district; Covers all of Langhorne Borough, Lower Southampton Township, Penndel Borough and parts of Middletown and Northampton Townships

143rd Legislative District: Shelby Labs (Republican) vs. Gwen Stoltz (Democrat) 

Voter Spread: GOP +4.7

Includes the townships of Plumstead, Bedminster, New Britain and Tinicum, and the boroughs of Dublin, Perkasie and Sellersville

144th Legislative District: Brian Munroe (Democrat) vs. Todd Polinchock (Republican)

Voter Spread: Dem +4.4

District includes Warminster, Warrington, Ivyland and part of New Britain Township

160th Legislative District: Catherine Spahr (Democrat) vs. Craig Williams (Republican)

Voter Spread: Dem +1.5

District underwent changes during redistricting; boundaries no longer include Kennett Square, and instead push further north toward West Chester

Cry Havoc

Almost no one today thinks Donald Trump won't run for president in 2024. Republicans continue to move to that seeming inevitability.  But evidence exists that Trump as the nominee would cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of internecine feuds among the GOP.

The latest New York Times/Siena College poll of registered voters found that:

1. 54% of that voting block believe 45's actions after the 2020 election went so far as to threaten our democracy

2. Only 38% believed Trump was exercising his right to contest the election

3. 51% said that Trump had committed serious federal crimes

Think about it.  A majority of the electorate believes that the former President of the United States actively threatened American democracy, and committed federal crimes. Nonetheless, the Republican base appear to be hell-bent to nominate Trump again. Also worth noting: in the Times/Siena poll, Trump wracks up 42% of the vote, whereas Joe Biden garners 45%, in a hypothetical 2024 match.

It would be extraordinarily difficult for anyone, no matter how much he or she might pander to the far-right base of the party, to defeat 45 in a primary fight. But numbers like those just cited should worry Republicans. Will voters in a general election support a candidate they believe broke federal laws?

Numbers Don't Lie

 As of 12:33 PM today (Saturday September 24), the wizards at fivethirtyeight.com felt that, despite talking-head opinions to the contrary, Democrats have a small but respectable chance of keeping a majority in the House of Representatives.  Only a few days ago, Dems' chances to deny Kevin McCarthy the Speaker's gavel were rated at 27 out of 100.  Today, 538 set them at 32.

In other words, the Good Guys' chances for keeping the House have improved by about one percentage point a day.  If that pace is at all sustainable, Kevin can go pound sand - just not with the Speaker's gavel.

Profoundly Disturbing

On September 20, People Magazine reported two recent examples of participation at political rallies that caused quite a stir, with gestures from attendees perceived by some as attacks on democracy, and even as expressions of hate.

Over the weekend, two separate groups were seen in that way, during speeches by former President Donald Trump and Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano. More disturbing, one of the gestures used at both rallies appears to acknowledge, perhaps even celebrate, both the QAnon conspiracy theory and white nationalism.

The first rally generating controversy was Trump's Save America rally in Youngstown, Ohio, on Saturday, with appearances by Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance and that paragon of reason and civility, Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan. At the rally, and as is so often the case, 45 used his time at the podium to glorify himself, rather than campaign. When Trump again offered disinformation about the 2020 election, and criticized the FBI's search of his Mar-a-Lago residence, members of the crowd each raised their right arm and extended an index finger. The significance? Possibly a quiet endorsement of America First.

If you think that's bad, you're going to cringe at another public presentation by another Republican thoroughly lacking both humility and compassion. Yes, GOTV is talking about you, Doug Mastriano. At a rally in Chambersburg PA, attendees were directed to raise their arms in something eerily similar to Hitler's Sieg Heil (literally, hail to victory) salute. Not even the most ill-informed and insensitive among us can overlook the significance of that gesture, especially at a time so close to International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

GOTV recommends that 45, Mastriano, and any who believe in their vulgar backchat read up on Martin Niemoller.

The Odds Have Improved

On Wednesday (09/21), CNN online reported that prospects for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections seemed to be improving. To paraphrase, the Good Guys poll two to three points better now than earlier this year, at least in most districts. Continuing this logic, incumbents in districts that are at least marginally blue have some breathing room. For the same reason, a handful more GOP seats have come into play.

Join GOTV in a wahoo over this. And, consider that, simultaneous with the CNN forecast, fivethirtyeight.com has also arrived at a picture of a Federal legislature that may turn completely blue.

A few days ago, 538 rated Democrats' chances of holding onto a majority in the House of Representatives at 27 out of 100. Today, those probabilities are closer to 31 out of 100.

Should this trend continue for the 45 days between today and November 8, Dems' chances of keeping the House would improve significantly, Today, 538 gives us about an 80% chance of holding the barest of majorities in the House: 220 seats.

A Crib-Sheet for November 8

Today, Spotlight PA published what it calls a basic guide to vetting candidates in 2022.  It's that and much more.  The extensive crib-sheet discusses:

• gubernatorial candidates
• senatorial candidates
• legislative candidates for both Harrisburg and DC

Among the features of  the guide that GOTV found most useful was:

1. Find who is on your ballot
2. Read about the candidates
3. Learn the basics
4. See their legislative history
5. Find out who is funding their campaign

 The guide also has information about voting by mail,  and about polling places.

Mastriano, Wallnau, Jezebel, and Voters

Five years ago, Lance Wallnau, a Texas based evangelist and prayer-coin salesman, told, in a live-streamed video. about how an anointed cake baked by prostitutes once resulted in a gay man becoming heterosexual.

Now, I’m not saying this is going to work for you, he points out in the video, before telling another story – again of hookers in a bar, this time transforming its very adamantly anti-Christian proprietor.

Returning to the anointed cake, Wallnau continued The power of God hit him while he was eating the cake .

Fast-forward to today. Wallnau currently campaigns for Doug Mastriano. Contemporaneous with that, Wallnau posted a tweet in which he claimed that the Women’s March on Washington, and protests by the members of that March of Donald Trump’s inauguration, were manifestations of the spirit of Jezebel.

Dovetails nicely with Mastriano's statement that women have no right to control their own bodies …

The Politics of Condescension and Cruelty

A Texas sheriff said Monday evening his agency will open an investigation into the transportation of 48 Venezuelan migrants from the state to Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts. Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar, a Democrat, told reporters at a Monday news conference that his understanding was that on Wednesday a Venezuelan migrant was paid a fee to recruit migrants from a resource center in San Antonio. The sheriff believes not only Bexar County but also federal laws were broken. Salazar claims the migrants were flown to Florida and then to Martha’s Vineyard under false pretenses, used for a photo-op, and then stranded.

The sheriff has been speaking with an attorney who represents some of the migrants, in order to gain first-hand accounts of what took place. Salazar claims the allegations he's heard are violations of human rights.

Florida (Republican / antedeluvian) Governor DeSantis defended his decision to use Florida taxpayers' dollars to fund this most recent example of political opportunism. They all signed consent forms (which were very misleading and on some points out-and-out lies) to go. Then the vendor that is doing this for Florida (with taxpayers' money approved be DeSantis) provided them with a packet that had a map of Martha’s Vineyard … and the number for different services that are on Martha’s Vineyard, DeSantis said.

Why wouldn’t they want to go, given where they were? They were in really, really bad shape and they got to be cleaned up, everything, treated well, he added.

Again not true. DeSantis portrays these folks as if they were migrant farm workers who'd just forded the Rio Grande. In reality, they're political migrants, fleeing the leftist government in Venezuela, and seeking asylum in the U. S.

Sorry, Ron. They weren't in really, really bad shape, nor did they need to be cleaned up.

Hospodi Pomilu

In the Byzantine Catholic Church in whch GOTV came of age, this post's title is a prayer of both praise and entreaty.  The latter would certainly be germane in duscussing Dnald Trump.

Former President Trump took the stage at a campaign rally for J. D. Vance in Youngstown, Ohio, on Saturday, September 17. Trump had previously endorsed Vance for the Republican nomination for Senator in the Buckeye State. According to the Associated Press and CNN , Trump used that appearance to promote – what else ? - himself. At Saturday's rally, Trump made sure the crowd knew that Vance was subservient to him – big time. J.D. is kissing my ass he wants my support so bad, Trump said.  This most recent exercise in classlessness by Trump was his reaction to a New York Times story which claimed that  Trump’s team had simply told Vance that 45 would be coming to Ohio for a rally.

So what else is new?  Trump’s campaign stops have always been largely about Trump. He spends most of his time talking about himself, and only a little talking about the candidate for whom he is ostensibly campaigning. But the 17^th appears to be the first time that Trump has actively and delightedly thrown a candidate he endorsed under the bus.

45 needs to think things through more thoroughly. It’s hard to see Trump’s characterization of Vance as benefiting J. D. in his competitive race against Democrat Tim Ryan. Even those voters who support Trump might find the portrayal of Vance as a lickspittle unappealing.

At events like that of this past Saturday, what Trump is really doing is basking in the adulation of his MAGA devotees. More than three decades ago, Donald said The show is Trump, and it is sold-out performances everywhere.

That’s what one must always keep in mind when trying to understand Trump's strategy or motivation. One can make the argument that there is none of either. Trump is all, and only, about Trump.

That such a position is belittling to Vance, and makes the candidate look small and desperate, doesn't concern Trump. 45's only thought is that he still be perceived as strong and powerful.

One doesn't have to be Byzantine Catholic to appreciate that this version of Hospodi Pomilu has meaing far beyond anything of which Donald Trump is capable or can imagine.  It defines everything he's not.

From the Horse's Mouth

Any idea that Doug Mastriano is even remotely qualified to be Governor of Pennsylvania has been completely deep-sixed by Mastriano himself.

In late August of this year, floridapolitics.com reported that (one of GOTV's candidates for Leading Political Exploitor) Ron DeSantis planned to travel to Ohio and Pennsylvania to campaign for candidates under the aegis of the pro-Donald Trump TurningPoint USA organization.

According to DeSantis' team, one such candidate cooperated with the Florida governor regarding a rally in Pittsburgh.  Gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano told the right-wing One America News Network that the Governor’s political team sought out Mastriano for the event.

Mastriano reportedly responded ... Are you kidding me? Heck yes.  He then elaborated  ... my goal as governor of Pennsylvania [would be] to make it the Florida of the North because he felt he had set the gold standard for the good a Governor can do ...

That's if one considers being a misogynist, a thinly-veiled racist, and an unapologetic aspiring autocrat as representing the good a Governor can do ...

Crunching Some Numbers

According to the pooh-bah of political prognosticators, Nate Silver, Democrats’ prospects for the midterms have improved. They now have about a 71 percent chance of keeping the Senate and a 29 percent chance of holding on to the House . There's also a concern that polls might overestimate Democrats’ position in the way similar to 2016 and 2020. In other words, some of the political illuminati seem to believe that polls are biased toward Democrats.

The best version of this latter position comes from Nate Cohn, of the New York Times. He pointed out in a piece on Monday that states like Wisconsin and Ohio, where Democratic Senate candidates are outperforming FiveThirtyEight’s fundamentals index were also prone to significant polling errors in 2020. But 538's Nate offers something of a rebuttal to the idea that polling bias is predictable, and favors Democrats.

What's been dubbed the Lite version of the 538 forecast, more or less a polls-only view of the race, gives Democrats an 81 percent chance of keeping the Senate and a 41 percent chance of keeping the House. This version also suggests that Democrats will win more seats, and corresponds to current polls overstating Democrats’ position by the equivalent of 1.5 or 2 percentage points. Put another way, one can therefore think of a race in which the polling average shows Democrats 2 points ahead as being tied.

It’s also the case that in individual races, information besides the polls can help make a more accurate prediction, even when you have a lot of polls. For example, the partisan lean of a state still tells you something. Let’s say the polling average has the Democrat ahead by 10 points in a state where the fundamentals put the Republican up by 2. Empirically, the best forecast in a race like this uses a blend of mostly polls and some fundamentals. How much weight is given to the polls depends on how many polls there are, and how close it is to the election. But that aside, one might end up with a forecast that has the Democrat winning by 7 or 8 points rather than 10.

In races such as Wisconsin and Ohio, where there's a significant divergence between polls and fundamentals, Democrats probably should be concerned, and redouble or quintuple their get-out-the-vote efforts. But in contests like Pennsylvania's gubernatorial or senatorial competitions, we can breathe a cautious sigh of relief. John Fetterman currently leads Mehmet Oz by more than 9 points. Josh Shapiro leads Doug Mastriano by double digits.

Bedside Manner Needs Improved

WESA, Pittsburgh's NPR news radio, has covered the campaign for the open PA Senate seat extensively. In a report yesterday, attributed to the Associated Press, WESA noted that both John Fetterman and his Republican adversary Mehmet Oz have begun relying on campaign surrogates, and have turned to TV ads wooing influential swing voters, particularly women.

In the 2020 presidential election, the onetime Republican stronghold of eastern Pennsylvania boosted Joe Biden's campaign, with moderate Republicans joining Democrats in producing a deficit in the vote count that Donald Trump simply could not overcome. This time around, Oz is faced with reversing Trump’s suburban slump and gaining ground with moderates. That latter is critical. Recent polls show Oz trailing not only Fetterman, but also other down-ballot Republicans.

Fetterman has made abortion rights a prominent theme; Oz, on the other hand, avoids mention of Trump or abortion in the suburbs, but pivots to portraying Fetterman as soft on crime, and unfit to serve because of a stroke he suffered in May. A few days after rallying with Trump in northeastern Pennsylvania, Oz appeared with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, a potential 2024 Republican presidential candidate, at a town hall in Delaware County. Besides airing a litany of grievances with Democrats and Biden, Haley, Oz and other speakers at the event warned the crowd that Fetterman would make their communities less safe. Oz claimed that Fetterman is trying to release people who’ve been convicted by a jury and sentenced by a judge for murder.

When all else fails for Repubs, they fall back on belittling, or even outright lies. As lieutenant governor and chair of the state Board of Pardons, John Fetterman did indeed push for more commutations of life sentences, but only in cases in which the individual in question had been convicted decades ago. As if their misstatements weren't enough, not-so-compassionate conservatives piled on, lampooning Fetterman’s typical choice of clothing - shorts and a hoodie - and implying that Fetterman is lying about the severity of effects on him of his stroke. If he can’t live up to 110% of the job, he should have the courage to step out and say, I can’t do it. Haley said. But let me tell you someone who can, she continued, then referring to Oz as a pro-family, pro-child, pro-parent, pro-education, pro-business freedom fighter.

GOTV considers Oz none of that, and little of anything admirable, and agrees with the Fetterman campaign that Oz is desperately trying to find anything that will help him make up ground in polls.

The Politics of Geography

GOTV has been in Delaware County for over 30 years. Even today, it can seem like the easternmost suburb of North Braddock. Adjusting wasn't strenuous; demographics were similar. Western PA boasts an even richer ethnic mix than Delco, but there was enough in common to make GOTV comfortable. Economics are similar too, though GOTV feels this corner of the state could do with more unions. However, there was and is one significant difference – politics.

Allegheny County remains strongly affiliated with Democrats. The County Council, made up of two at-large and 13 district-based members, much more frequently than not is dominated by those on the left. GOTV attributes this to both economics and topography. The landscape of Allegheny County resembles a series of islands of boroughs and towns. Hills and rivers in the County reinforce that metaphor, as does the income level of most residents. In other words and to return to metaphor, Allegheny County has no analog to the Main Line.

Which is why GOTV prefers western PA, people-centered politics to eastern, and, therefore, John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro to Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano.

Braddock-Driven Policies

On a day in late October, 2015, long before the question had become a hot-button issue, then-mayor of Braddock John Fetterman and three guests talked about how to help Syrians seeking refuge in the Pittsburgh area. Afterwards, conversation turned to Fetterman’s 6-week-old and ultimately failed Senate campaign. One of the guests told Fetterman it would be easier for him to get things done in Braddock than as a senator in Washington. One example? Fetterman’s four times a week visit to a Costco store in nearby Homestead, where an employee wheeled out a cart with several cases of fresh food. The food was free - considered unsellable, but safe to eat. Fetterman would then spend the next few days handing it out to his town’s residents. That’s the best part of my job, he said.

Then, and today, Braddock has only 2K-and-change residents.  Fetterman's belief, then and today? If the architecture and the buildings are in place, then things can come back, because you have a place to put them. ... we have to make every building and every space that we save count ... 

Then and today, signs of a nascent revival in blue-collar Braddock abound.  Take The Free Store; the name says it all.  Everything is free. Food, clothes, dishes, you name it - all for zero dollars. The Free Store is made up of two shipping containers and a parking lot; it's the brainchild of Gisele Fetterman, the then-mayor’s wife and today the Second Lady of Pennsylvania, who immigrated to the United States from Brazil and was once undocumented.

Generosity like that demonstrated in The Free Store symbolized and symbolizes hope for a town of such concentrated poverty. Next to the Store sits a brewery called The Brew Gentlemen. The owner Matt Katase and his colleague brew a dozen varieties of beer and operate what Fetterman describes with humor as the highest-rated brewery in the Pittsburgh area. GOTV can't speak to that, but we did find Brew Gentlemen well-covered online, and even in a YouTube video. The Brew Gentleman started as a school project at Carnegie Mellon University, where Katase studied mathematics. After researching Pittsburgh neighborhoods, and hearing some positive buzz about Braddock, Katase and his business partner gave it a look. The result? They didn’t just open a business in Braddock; they moved there.

Why this lengthy discussion of Braddock as a means of understanding John Fetterman and his politics?

• the beliefs and philosophy behind GOTV also started in Braddock, and, we like to think. dovetail seamlessly with Fetterman's concern for working folks

• the belief that humane policies are effective (viz  success of The Brew Gentlemen, as noted in an industry publication)

• the belief that humane policies are needed at every level of government, from boroughs like Braddock, to the U. S. Senate (can you say I withdraw my anti-abortion legislation, Mr. Graham?)

• the inability of GOTV to find any record of Mehmet Oz engaging in similar compassionate charitable efforts

So call GOTV prejudiced. But the history of Braddock and Fetterman constitutes another reason to vote Democratic. Not just to hold the Senate; not just to expand Democratic control of it and its functions; and not just for bragging rights. The reason to vote Democratic in the race for PA's open Senate seat is that practicing small, random acts of kindness is quite practical, and astute and effective politically.

According to the Census Bureau ...

GOTV believes that a meaningful neologism for democracy is the treasure of information it provides. The Census Bureau, upon whose data today's post relies, is only one example of what we'd lose if autocracy gains a solid foothold. AKA would you want to live in Orban's Hungary?

GOTV assumes that's a big h--l no. So the rest of this post will, with the help of the Census Bureau, explain why progressives must turn out in droves on November 8.

• Real median household income was $70,784 in 2021. Keep in mind, that's median - not necessarily an accurate representation of typical incomes.

• Median incomes were highest in the West ($79,430) and the Northeast ($77,472), followed by the Midwest ($71,129) and the South ($63,368) in 2021. Again, note that where you live can effect how you live.

• The Gini index is a statistical measure of income inequality ranging from 0.0 to 1.0. It measures the amount that any two incomes differ, on average, relative to an assumed arithmetical mean income. It tells us how far apart incomes are from one another. 0.0 represents perfect equality, whereas 1.0 indicates total inequality. Based on the Gini index, income inequality increased by 1.2 percent between 2020 and 2021 (from 0.488 to 0.494). This is the first time this index has shown an annual increase since 2011. And another sobering point - in the United States, there is usually between 40% and 45% income inequality.

• When considered according to race, household incomes differ. Asian households had the highest median income ($101,418) in 2021, followed by non-Hispanic White ($77,999), Hispanic ($57,981), and Black (with the lowest: $48,297).

• Between 2020 and 2021, there was an increase of about 11.1 million full-time,year-round workers (from approximately 106.3 million to 117.4 million), suggesting a shift from working part-time or part-year in 2020 to full-time, year-round work in 2021 / post-pandemic.

• The real earnings of all workers (including part-time and full-time workers) increased 4.6% (from $43,461 to $45,470) between 2020 and 2021,

• Here's a real kick in the gut to women's rights. For all full-time, year-round workers, median earnings among men ($61,180) and women ($51,226) differ significantly and consistently.

• The official poverty rate in 2021 was 11.6%, with 37.9 million people in poverty.

• The official poverty measure includes only pretax money income. Something called the SPM extends the official poverty measure by taking into account many of the government programs designed to assist low-income families and individuals. Such programs include things like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), as well as stimulus payments and expansions to refundable tax credits. Two points here: SPM does not replace the official poverty measure, and is not used to determine eligibility for government programs. Nonetheless, SPM is an accurate representation of poverty. The new Supplemental Poverty Measure produces a somewhat higher overall estimate of the number of poor and substantially alters the composition of the poverty population—much less child poverty, much more aged poverty, and more poor adults.

• For the first time since 2011, income inequality in the United States increased.

Misguided

Politics can be viewed as a two-lane highway. Appeal to your party's base to win a primary. Then, assuming you've been successful, appeal to folks at the center - always the deciding votes in a general election. Doug Mastriano's campaign for governor has thrown out this traditional playbook.  He seems uninterested in those outside his hardcore base of supporters. A recent article from the Philadelphia Inquirer explored this theme.

As he tours the Commonwealth, Mastriano has essentially walled himself off from the general public, traveling within a bubble of security guards and jittery aides who aim to  ... keep him safe ... [and]  ensure he only comes into contact with true believers ... Republican leaders around the state had hoped that Mastriano's unorthodox campaign would evolve over the summer and begin reaching out to undecided voters. Instead ... Labor Day came and went. His slogan is 'walk as free people,' but the retired Army colonel … operates as if under siege in [his] home state, employing strong-arm tactics more reminiscent of authoritarian regimes.

In addition, Mastriano:

• rarely engages with any news service not overtly friendly to him

• does interviews only with outlets like the One America News Network

• won't talk to more mainstream outlets
  

• has for months refused to interact with national and local reporters, and has gone so far as to expel them from events

As Chris Cilliza of CNN put it, controlling Pennsylvania is a massive advantage for the party holding that power. Which makes those of us immune to Mastriano's political guano feel fairly confident. That, and the fact that Josh Shapiro continues to hold a small, but outside-the-margin-of-error lead, over the Colonel.

Redistricting

As is the case with the federal House of Representatives, all seats in the Pennsylvania House (203 of them in the case of the Commonwealth) are up for election every two years. In addition to that, on February 4, 2022, the Pennsylvania Legislative Reapportionment Commission voted 4-1 to approve new state House and Senate maps, which will be in effect for our upcoming 2022 legislative elections. Factoring in census data reveals that as of the 2020 Census, Pennsylvania state representatives represented an average of 64,052 residents, an increase from the 2010 Census, after which each member represented 62,573 resident  Thankfully, the Pennsylvania Constitution requires that state legislative districts be contiguous and compact, and that they keep in mind county, city, incorporated town, borough, township and ward boundaries. Such a requirement greatly reduces the possibility of the kind of gerrymandering that has happened at the Federal level.

Pennsylvania holds elections for its lower legislative chamber only in even-numbered years. So, on Tuesday, November 8, 2022, all 203 seats in our state House will be up for grabs. Even without the recent redistricting, that number of choices can seem intimidating. GOTV guesses that you, like us, may not be sure of the legislative district that represents you. (GOTV's changed after a move from western to eastern Delaware County.) But wait – no worries.

While intimidating in its reliance on legal-speak, GOTV considers the document cited below to be the most thorough resource available regarding state legislative districts in PA. For example, consulting it allowed us to determine that the move from western to eastern Delaware County:

• had not put us into an environment of split jurisdictions, be they borough, county, or township

• confirmed that all of Delaware County now occupies District 5

If you can take it in stages, in order to avoid your eyes glazing over, read the reapportionment plan ; look for the caption Carter Plan via PA Supreme Court (Feb. 23, 2022). You'll get significant insight into the nuts and bolts of politics.

Railroads

It's possible that unions representing more than 90,000 freight railroad workers will go on strike on Friday, September 16. Such an action could, you should pardon the pun, ground nearly 30% of U S freight.

Our economy still struggles with supply chain issues. A prolonged strike by these folks could create more:

• empty shelves in stores

• closures at factories

• higher prices for consumer goods

Unions and management met with federal mediators and US Labor Secretary Martin Walsh Wednesday. At the close of the day, unions said there had been no progress.

Freight-carrying railroads thrived during the pandemic; that's not a problem. The significant hurdle? The set of rules governing worker scheduling. Many engineers and conductors, the basic two-person crew on every train, have to be on call seven days a week. Historically, that meant and still means:

• being unable to make their own plans

• decreasing time available for their families

• perhaps most significant, creating a high turnover rate

Here's the low-down. Railroad workers operate under a different labor law than those which govern most businesses. As a result, it might be up to Congress to prevent or quickly stop a strike. But doing so would require an unusual level of bipartisanship, which would be unlikely only weeks ahead of midterm elections.

Two months ago, President Biden prevented a strike. He imposed a 60-day cooling-off period, during which a panel examined disputes in negotiations and issued a recommended settlement. The 60-day cooling-off period will expire at 12:01 AM ET Sept. 16. After that, the President will no longer have the power to prevent a strike. It'll be up to Congress, either by imposing a deal on the two sides, or extending the current hiatus.

If it turns out to be left to Congress, it will be our responsibility too. As voters, we must ensure labor-friendly representation in both Chambers of Congress.

To Debate or Not to Debate

According to CNN, the last few days have been John Fetterman's worst in his bid to be the next senator from Pennsylvania. GOTV disagrees. While it's true that the Lieutenant Governor left the impression he wasn't being completely honest about his health, his recent openness about debating more than compensates. What he did on Wednesday night was very smart.

We're absolutely going to debate Dr. Oz, and that was really always our intention Fetterman told Politico. He continued It was just simply only ever been about addressing some of the lingering issues of the stroke, the auditory processing, and we're going to be able to work that out.

The details are still being finalized, but the evolving scenario is fascinating. Fetterman said he was eyeing a debate with his Republican opponent in the middle to the end of October. Kudos for the timing, John – less than three weeks from the midterm election.

Here's why CNN (and GOTV) feel Fetterman's decision to debate, and not to delay the announcement of that decision, makes good political sense for him.

1. The issue won't go away. Fetterman was off the campaign trail for roughly three months , which raises legitimate questions about whether he can handle the job he's running for. Particularly given the tone-deaf, not-so-compassionate attitude of MAGA Republicans, many Pennsylvania voters might have doubts about Fetterman's health, which questions Mr. Oz would love the chance to exacerbate. So, at some point in the next just-under-eight-weeks, Mr. Fetterman must demonstrate he's up to the rigors, not only of the campaign, but also of the office. Optimally, he should do so at a time and place, and in a manner, of his own choosing.

2. Fetterman should no longer play defense. Fetterman has batted 1000 at keeping Oz off balance. He's been masterful at using social media to drive his campaign, from Snooki to making (crudite) hay out of Oz's elitist attitudes. But the recent questions about Fetterman's health gave Oz, however temporarily, momentum for attacks.

A debate might completely silence Oz - a consummation devoutly to be wished ...

Fetterman and Ryan

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was touted less than a month ago by Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash). Jayapal noted that the IRA marks the largest ever federal investment in climate action, and puts the United States on track to cut carbon pollution by 40%, by 2030. She then added:

• it will help pay down the deficit

• it will introduce taxes on large corporations

• it will lower health care costs

• Democrats still need to hold the House, and win a couple of seats in the Senate

Thanks to John Fetterman and perhaps also to Tim Ryan, the Senate is nearly a done deal. To hang on to the House, we're going to need the mother of all GOTV efforts; but it can be done.

Election Denial

fivethirtyeight.com's track record is, as always, superb. Today, the site tells us that:

• election denialism has become rampant in the U. S.

• candidates who support Donald Trump’s claim that the 2020 election was stolen will appear on ballots in nearly every state this fall

Take advantage of 538's efforts to determine the position on the 2020 election of every Republican nominee for the House, Senate, governor, secretary of state and attorney general in every state. Then, as frosting on the cake, use the internal app the Kings of Stats have provided to see whether Republicans running in your area have denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election. Your iuquiry, and its results, can be sorted by state and office.

GOTV tried Pennsylvania, and got:

Governor

Douglas V. Mastriano

Denial status: Fully denied

Chance of winning:

14 in 100

Senator

Mehmet Oz

Denial status:Raised questions

Chance of winning:

20 in 100

Pennsylvania 1st

Brian Fitzpatrick

Denial status:Accepted with reservations

Chance of winning:

97 in 100

Pennsylvania 2nd

Aaron Bashir

Denial status:Fully denied

Chance of winning:

<1 in 100

Pennsylvania 4th

Christian Nascimento

Denial status:Accepted with reservations

Chance of winning:

2 in 100

Pennsylvania 5th

David Galluch

Denial status:No comment

Chance of winning:

<1 in 100

Pennsylvania 6th

Guy Louis Ciarrocchi

Denial status:Raised questions

Chance of winning:

2 in 100

Pennsylvania 7th

Lisa Scheller

Denial status: No comment

Chance of winning:

56 in 100

 

Pennsylvania 8th

Jim Bognet

Denial status:Fully denied

Chance of winning:

30 in 100

Pennsylvania 9th

Dan Meuser

Denial status:Fully denied

Chance of winning:

>99 in 100

Pennsylvania 10th

Scott Perry

Denial status:Fully denied

Chance of winning:

96 in 100

 

Pennsylvania 11th

Lloyd K. Smucker

Denial status:Fully denied

Chance of winning:

>99 in 100

Pennsylvania 12th

Mike Doyle

Denial status:No comment

Chance of winning:

1 in 100

Pennsylvania 13th

John Joyce

Denial status:Fully denied

Chance of winning:

>99 in 100

Pennsylvania 14th

Guy Reschenthaler

Denial status:Fully denied

Chance of winning:

>99 in 100

Pennsylvania 15th

Glenn "GT" Thompson

Denial status:Fully denied

Chance of winning:

>99 in 100

Pennsylvania 16th

Mike Kelly

Denial status:Fully denied

Chance of winning:

>99 in 100

Pennsylvania 17th

Jeremy Shaffer

Denial status:No comment

Chance of winning:

30 in 100

GOTV finds two things extraordinarily disturbing about this de facto roll-call.

• Of the 18 candidates reviewed, 10 were full-on deniers

• Of those, nine were rated as almost certain to be re-elected
  

Thankfully, neither Mastriano nor Oz belong to that last cohort.   But don't get cocky; if ever there were an argument for getting out the vote, 538's tabulation is it.  Use the tools provided by the site to determine what candidates, especially those for your Congressional district, really believe.