A Precis for November 8

GOTV applauds City and State PA for the precis on the upcoming election the publication put together.

Democrats held a slim majority in the House from 2007 through 2010. But today, Republicans hold 113 of 203 seats. Dems need to gain 12 in order to have a majority in that chamber. Unfortunately, even after redistricting, some maps show Republicans with a (small) majority of 104 seats. That number represents a thin plurality  - only 51.2%. Therefore, for Democrats to score a similar but even more slim primacy , they need to hold only 102 seats – almost a pittance, in light of the predictions from City and State we note below.

One more thing – the decidedly fuzzy math at the end of this paragraph is GOTV's alone. It represents what we feel is needed for Dems to gain the 102 seats just cited.   We arrived at our prediction simply by averaging the odds assigned by City and State to the 15 individual races they're following. Doing so said that an average Voter Spread of 3.13 would give Dems the chamber.  When one considers that, of the 15 races in question, nine are currently held by Republicans, flipping only one of them might be enough to change the overall makeup of the House.  And one final note: the Voter Spreads cited for each of the 15 districts in question were arrived at by Dave's Redistricting.

House Races

3rd Legislative District: Ryan Bizzarro (Democrat) vs. Joe Kujawa (Republican)

Voter Spread: Dem +4.2

Redistricting shifted the Erie region districts around, but the 3rd district still looks to be the incumbent state Rep. Ryan Bizzarro’s to lose.

7th Legislative District: Tim McGonigle (Democrat) vs. Parke Wentling (Republican)

Voter Spread: GOP +5.2

What was once thought to be a matchup between sitting lawmakers has now turned into a toss-up election. Mercer County

13th Legislative District: David Cunningham (Democrat) vs. John Lawrence (Republican)

Voter Spread: GOP +3.6

State Rep. John Lawrence held off a challenger during the primary election, but with the new district lines, the general election could still be up in the air. Highland Township

30th Legislative District: Cindy Kirk (Republican) vs. Arvind Venkat (Democrat)

Voter Spread: Dem +3.7

Dr. Arvind Venkat, an emergency room physician with Allegheny Health Network, has quickly become a popular candidate and gained a significant fundraising advantage. The suburban Allegheny district runs along the Ohio River and Pittsburgh’s North Hills.

39th Legislative District: Andrew Kuzma (Republican) vs. Richard Self (Democrat)

Voter Spread: GOP +8.9

Two newcomers; includes Elizabeth and Somerset Townships, as well as Jefferson Hills, Finleyville and portions of South Park.

44th Legislative District: Valerie Gaydos (Republican) vs. Debra Turici (Democrat)

Voter Spread: GOP +1.1

Incumbent will run against Democrat Debra Turici.

Includes communities around Moon Township, Ross Township, and Leetsdale.

88th Legislative District: Sara Agerton (Democrat) vs. Sheryl Delozier (Republican)

Voter Spread: GOP +4.0

Under the new maps, the 88th district includes Hampden Township, most of Lower Allen and the boroughs of Mechanicsburg, New Cumberland and Shiremanstown

118th Legislative District: James Haddock (Democrat) vs. James May (Republican)

Voter Spread: Dem +5.6

The district has a Democratic lean, and encompasses communities in Lackawanna and Luzerne counties

119th Legislative District: Vito Malacari (Democrat) vs. Alec Ryncavage (Republican) 

Voter Spread: GOP +5.1

The district includes areas of Luzerne County southwest of Wilkes-Barre.

120th Legislative District: Aaron Kaufer (Republican) vs. Fern Leard (Democrat)

Voter Spread: GOP +3.7

The slightly conservative district includes parts of Luzerne County including the townships of Dallas, Exeter, and Kingston and the boroughs of Forty Fort, Luzerne and Wyoming.

137th Legislative District: Joe Emrick (Republican) vs. Anna Thomas (Democrat)

Voter Spread: Dem +0.9

The most tightly contested district in terms of voter spread. Slightly Democratic-leaning area; includes Nazareth, Bethlehem Township, Palmer and Hanover

142nd Legislative District: Joe Hogan (Republican) vs. Mark Moffa (Democrat)

Voter Spread: Dem +5.4

New 142nd legislative district; Covers all of Langhorne Borough, Lower Southampton Township, Penndel Borough and parts of Middletown and Northampton Townships

143rd Legislative District: Shelby Labs (Republican) vs. Gwen Stoltz (Democrat) 

Voter Spread: GOP +4.7

Includes the townships of Plumstead, Bedminster, New Britain and Tinicum, and the boroughs of Dublin, Perkasie and Sellersville

144th Legislative District: Brian Munroe (Democrat) vs. Todd Polinchock (Republican)

Voter Spread: Dem +4.4

District includes Warminster, Warrington, Ivyland and part of New Britain Township

160th Legislative District: Catherine Spahr (Democrat) vs. Craig Williams (Republican)

Voter Spread: Dem +1.5

District underwent changes during redistricting; boundaries no longer include Kennett Square, and instead push further north toward West Chester