Holding the House

According to The Hill, and with only a month remaining before the midterms, Democrats are somewhat unexpectedly competitive in the contest for the House.

Top political handicappers still feel Republicans will win control of the lower chamber in November. But they also feel expected margins for such a victory have shrunk considerably. This gives Democrats hope they can minimize their losses and better their odds of retaking the chamber two years from now. Like GOTV, House Dems also look forward to making life tougher for potential Speaker (ugh!) Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who’s already struggling to control his most conservative wing – a task analogous to herding cats.

We’re increasingly optimistic about our ability to hold the House Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) told reporters Friday. But yearning-to-be-Speaker Kevin doesn't agree. McCarthy, encouraged by Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) victory in Virginia a year ago, predicted the GOP would pick up 60 seats.

But his envisioned red wave appears increasingly remote. Over the summer, prominent campaign forecasters made numerous shifts in their predictions, increasingly in favor of Democratic candidates. Amy Walter of Cook’s, noted a difference between this year and 2010, the last time Democrats lost control of the House. Then, polls showed Republicans had a 13-point advantage among persuadable voters. The figure this year is 3 points. Walters continued In order to make significant gains, Republicans would need to win in districts that Biden carried by 6 points or more.

Republicans need to net only four seats to win back control of the House. But margins could prove crucial for McCarthy and other GOP leaders. The hard-right flank in the GOP House already looks to impeach Biden, slash federal spending, and take on the Washington establishment — even its own leadership. Just ask John Bo.ehner and Paul Ryan ...